Вплив змін клімату на аграрний сектор Західної України: аналіз сезонних змін та врожайності

Abstract

Проаналізовано вплив змін клімату на аграрний сектор західної України, з особливою увагою до сезонних змін та їхнього відображення на врожайності сільськогосподарських культур. Досліджено динаміку температурних режимів та опадів впродовж різних сезонів і виявлено ключові тенденції, що мають безпосередній вплив на продуктивність рослинництва. На основі аналізу метеорологічних даних та статистичних показників врожайності найбільш вразливі до кліматичних змін культури та регіони в межах Західної України. Окрему увагу приділено екстремальним погодним явищам та їхнім наслідкам для сільського господарства. Запропоновано можливі шляхи адаптації аграрного сектору до мінливих кліматичних умов задля мінімізації ризиків та забезпечення сталого розвитку галузі.

This article presents a comprehensive study of the impact of contemporary climate change on the agricultural sector of Western Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to a detailed analysis of the dynamics of key seasonal climate parameters, such as temperature regime and precipitation patterns, over the period from 1901 to 2020, and their direct influence on the yield of major agricultural crops in the region. Based on statistical analysis of long-term time series of meteorological data and crop yield indicators, persistent trends have been identified, including the rise in average annual and seasonal temperatures especially in summer and changes in precipitation distribution, with a notable decline in rainfall during summer and winter seasons. The study identifies the agroecological zones and priority agricultural crops most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change within Western Ukraine. Special attention is given to the potential impact of extreme weather events, including droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves, on the stability of agricultural production and regional food security. Despite the identified negative climate trends, the analysis of crop yields for 2023 demonstrates significant agricultural potential in Western Ukraine, with Ternopil, Lviv, and Rivne regions leading in yields of most crops compared to national averages. However, the authors emphasize growing climate-related challenges for the sustainable development of the sector. The article substantiates the need for the development and implementation of a comprehensive set of adaptation measures aimed at minimizing the negative consequences of climate change and ensuring food security both regionally and nationally. The study outlines the prospects for using the results to develop regional adaptation strategies, justify the implementation of modern agrotechnologies, guide breeding programs, inform and educate farmers, attract investment, and establish systems for yield monitoring and forecasting. Further research directions are identified, including a detailed assessment of the impact of extreme weather events, development of targeted recommendations for different agro-climatic zones, and evaluation of the economic effectiveness of adaptation measures. Conclusions. The study revealed clear trends in climate change in the agricultural sector of Western Ukraine during the period from 1901 to 2020. There is a steady increase in average annual seasonal temperatures, especially in the summer period, which can have a negative impact on the water balance of the region and increase the risk of droughts. Analysis of the dynamics of average annual precipitation by season showed a decrease in summer and winter precipitation, which can also negatively affect the moisture supply of agricultural crops during critical phases of their development. Despite the general trend towards warming and changes in the precipitation regime, an analysis of the yield of the main agricultural crops in the region for 2023 revealed its significant agricultural potential. Ternopil, Lviv and Rivne regions demonstrated the highest production rates of key crops. Comparison of average yields in Western Ukraine with national indicators showed the region's superiority in most of the studied crops, which emphasizes the favorable agro-climatic conditions. However, further climate change poses a significant challenge for the sustainable development of the agricultural sector. To minimize the negative consequences and ensure food security of the region and the country as a whole, comprehensive adaptation measures are needed.