Україна і Туркменістан: стратегія співробітництва у нових геополітичних реаліях

Abstract

Розкрито сучасне політико-географічне положення Туркменістану в умовах російської агресії проти України. Показано особливості його позиціювання у Центральній Азії та Каспійському регіоні. Оцінено потенціал співробітництва між Україною і Туркменістаном у повоєнний період. Акцентовано на стратегічних напрямах співпраці – проєкти побудови Транскаспійського газопроводу для постачання природного газу в Україну та зовнішньоторгівельна діяльність у межах Транскаспійського міжнародного транспортного маршруту.

The aim of this study is to explore the potential of interstate cooperation between Ukraine and Turkmenistan as subjects of the global geopolitical system, as well as Ukraine’s opportunities for partnership in new economic projects between the EU and Turkmenistan and other forms of interregional cooperation. Turkmenistan’s contemporary political and economic-geographical position has undergone changes in the context of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. This is due to several factors, first, economic sanctions against russia have rendered the utilization of russian transit potential in trade relations between China and European countries impossible. As a result, the transit significance of Turkmenistan, the South Caucasus, and the Black Sea region has increased. Second, the new policy of European countries aimed at diversifying energy imports involves establishing supplies from Turkmenistan, which ranks fifth in the world in terms of proven natural gas reserves and may become a crucial source of hydrocarbon supplies. Third, Turkmenistan’s domestic market experiences a significant deficit in various goods and services, which could be exported from Ukraine in the post-war period. A positive factor in Ukrainian-Turkmen relations is the well-developed contractual and legal framework. Cooperation will also be facilitated by Turkmenistan’s de jure status as a neutral state. However, russia’s geopolitical influence in supporting the authoritarian regime in Turkmenistan remains considerable. Central Asia, in general, is a geostrategic region where the interests of major powers intersect. However, China holds particularly strong positions, viewing the region as a source of energy resources, a transit zone for its Belt and Road Initiative, and a large market for trade and investment. The European Union pursues its economic interests in Central Asia through the Global Gateway initiative, which aims to strengthen Trans-Caspian cooperation, including with Turkmenistan. The proposed construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline will enable Turkmen natural gas to reach the vast market of South Asia. The new strategy for interstate cooperation between Ukraine and Turkmenistan should be based on bilateral agreements and multilateral cooperation frameworks. A key area of collaboration is the import of natural gas from Turkmenistan, which necessitates the completion of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The subsequent segments of the Southern Gas Corridor, passing through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine, have already been constructed and are operational. Ukraine’s gas transportation system could be utilized for the storage and transit of Turkmen gas to Europe, significantly reducing dependence on Russian energy sources. Due to its strategic location, the South Caucasus and Central Asia region is becoming a crucial transit hub for trade between East and West. Ukraine and Turkmenistan conduct foreign trade activities within the framework of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. The southern branch of the Middle Corridor, connecting China with Europe via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, a ferry crossing over the Caspian Sea, and further through Azerbaijan and Georgia to the Black Sea, is gaining increasing importance. From the Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi, goods can be transported to Ukrainian ports in Odesa and Chornomorsk, as well as to Romanian and Bulgarian ports. In the absence of security threats, the transport corridor through Ukraine remains the shortest route to Central and Northern European countries. In the post-war period, Ukraine should increase the import of mineral fertilizers, cotton, and livestock products from Turkmenistan. Potential Ukrainian exports to Turkmenistan could include a wide range of goods, such as ferrous metals and metal products-particularly pipes for the needs of Turkmenistan’s oil and gas sector-grain, dairy products, foodstuffs, and machinery. Ukrainian companies have experience in constructing bridges, gas compressor stations, and urban infrastructure projects in Turkmenistan, which should continue to be leveraged. Medical resorts could provide healthcare and wellness services to Turkmen citizens. The post-war cooperation strategy between Ukraine and Turkmenistan should also include the educational and scientific sectors. The education of Turkmen students in Ukrainian universities will contribute to the export of democratic values to Turkmenistan.Strengthening cooperation with Turkmenistan should be carried out with consideration for Ukraine’s national interests and contribute to enhancing the country’s geopolitical positioning.