Вплив кліматичних змін на аграрне виробництво областей українського Полісся

Abstract

Проаналізовано вплив кліматичних змін на сільське господарство Українського Полісся. Виявлено культури, урожайність яких характеризується найвищим рівнем залежності від кліматичних умов, схарактеризовано причини цієї залежності. Доведено, що найбільший вплив на урожайність мають термічні чинники. Окреслено перспективи подальшого розвитку аграрної галузі регіону, виділено основні кліматичні ризики, які можуть загрожувати її функціонуванню.

The article is one of the first attempts to assess the influence of climatic factors on the productivity of the main agricultural crops grown in the Polissia zone. For the first time, a comparative analysis of the influence of thermal factors and moisture regime factors on the yield of various crops has been conducted. The influence of climatic factors on the productivity of the main agricultural crops was studied using the methods of pairwise correlation and multiple linear regression. Using the method of pairwise correlation, the nature and degree of influence of climatic factors on the yield of various agricultural crops were revealed. With the help of multiple linear regression, regression models of productivity for the main agricultural crops were built. It is shown that the level of yield dependence on climatic factors varies significantly depending on the type of crop. Crops whose productivity is characterized by the highest level of dependence on climatic factors have been identified, and the reasons for this dependence have been characterized. Agroclimatic factors are ranked according to the degree of their impact on productivity. It has been proven that thermal factors have the greatest influence on productivity, the key ones being the average annual air temperature and the average temperature of the growing season. The increase in the heat supply of Polissia, represented by these factors, leads to an increase in the yield of most grain, technical, and vegetable crops grown in the region. Thus, it can be stated that the warming associated with global climate changes generally had a positive effect on the agricultural production of Polissia. It is also shown that changes in the humidification regime will not have a significant impact on the process of transformation of agricultural production in Polissia. Regression models of the productivity of the main agricultural crops were built. It is shown that the multiple linear regression of productivity has a high coefficient of determination only if the regression model takes into account not only climatic factors but also the amount of applied mineral fertilizers. Predicted yield values of the main agricultural crops were calculated. The prospects for the further development of agriculture in Polissia are outlined, and the prospects for the further transformation of the industry in the conditions of climate change are outlined. The main risks that may threaten the sustainable functioning of the agricultural sector of the region are highlighted, and possible ways of mitigating these risks are described. The study provides a foundation for future investigations into how climatic conditions affect the yield of various crops. It underscores the importance of considering both thermal and moisture factors when evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. By taking into account the different climatic influences, the study offers a comprehensive view of how agriculture in Polissia might evolve in the future. The insights gained from this research can help policymakers and farmers in Polissia make informed decisions to ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural production in the face of climate variability. By leveraging the study's findings, adaptation strategies can be designed to enhance crop yields and sustain agricultural productivity, thereby supporting the region's economic stability and food security. The study also highlights the need for continuous monitoring and research to stay ahead of climatic trends and their impacts on agriculture.