Дослідження ризику розвитку небезпечних екзогенних процесів на території великих міст

Abstract

Scientific-methodical approach towards estimation of total risk of dangerous exogeodynamical processes development on the territory of large cities is examined. Carried-out estimation is executed including both the probability of negative processes manifestation and possible expenses connected with them for forecasting of man-caused geosystems position and working-out of control systems and defense arrangement of the high-risk zones. The risk estimation was carried out in the limits of taxons of engineering-and-geomorphological zoning, which were chosen with the taking into account morphogenetical, morpholithological, morphometrical, morphological, engineering-and-geological characteristics. The main criterion during the risk degree determination is a possible economical loss for probable people losses as a result of dangerous processes development in the limits of engineering-and-geomorphological districts. The possibility of simultaneous activity of unwanted exogeodynamical processes i.e. flood, subsidence of rock, hulling, erosive processes during the engineering-and-geomorphological estimation of risk. At first, damage coefficient was estimated by every process of the territory of engineering-and-geomorphological districts in a ratio of an area, damaged by some process to the general area of a district. On its basis a damage degree by definite processes was estimated: very weak, weak, average, strong, very strong. The processes development risk degree is established with the help of empirical coefficient, the amount of which depends upon priority (dynamics, recurrence, possible activation or disastrous manifestations) and critical layers of every exogeodynamical process development. The highest values of W, established for the districts which are badly damaged by the most dangerous processes of shifts, that gives the possibility to take into account the shifts manifestations in huge by area engineering-and-geomorphological taxons, where the areas of shifted objects are insignificant. The districts with manifestations of rock subsidence processes and floods have the significantly lower coefficient. Integral index of a total risk let us choose the zones of different degree of dangerous processes development on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk The total evaluative map, which reflects the zones of the development of different degrees in dangerous exogenous processes (flood, subsidence of rock, hulling, erosive processes) is rendered.