Регіональні тренди глобальної зміни клімату на території території Тернопільської області

Abstract

У публікації обґрунтовано доцільність дослідження кліматичних змін на рівні регіону, зокрема Тернопільської області. Запропоновано аналіз даних численних спостережень за кількістю та інтенсивністю опадів, температурними показниками, їхніми абсолютними, історичними та середніми значеннями за період 1946-2020 років, що надало можливість констатувати зміну клімату. Встановлено регіональні тренди кліматичних змін, що виявляються у підвищенні річної температури повітря, в основному за рахунок зимових та літніх місяців, збільшенні кількості та інтенсивності опадів, які мають переважно зливовий характер, що своєю чергою провокують збільшення частоти небезпечних та стихійних гідрометеорологічних явищ.

Climate change, its causes and consequences are an extremely relevant topic today. It is constantly discussed not only in the circles of scientific experts but also in almost all spheres of society because the modern economy is largely dependent on many climatic factors. Climate change is happening quite rapidly around the world as well as in Ukraine. Evidence of climate change is supported by numerous hydrometeorological observations, observations of the amount and intensity of precipitation, temperature indicators and their absolute and average values. These indicators allow us to determine climate change. Long-term monitoring of air temperature makes it possible to characterize the climate change trend and the extent of its spread. Ukraine has a large network of observation points that have their data expertly assessed by the Central Geophysical Observatory. We would like to point out that in recent decades the temperature in the region is continuing to rise based on the archival data from the Ternopil Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and the research of the Central Geophysical Observatory and the Ukrainian Research Hydrometeorological Institute under the Ministry for Emergencies and NAS of Ukraine. The average annual air temperature rises due to significant warming of summer and winter periods. Regarding the climatic norm, which was calculated from 1961 to 1990, in almost all warm months the temperature exceeds up to 4°C, and in the winter months it exceeds up to 6°C. Having analyzed the observations of the Ternopil Regional Center of Hydrometeorology from 1946 to 2021, we notice that until 1989 the average annual air temperature in the region was much lower than the climatic norm, which is +8,4°C. In the Ternopil region, 2019 was ranked first among the warmest years since 1946, its average temperature was + 10,1°C, which is 1.7°C higher than the climatic norm. According to the Kremenets meteorological station, the average annual air temperature was + 10,5°С in the northern areas. According to the Ternopil Civil Aviation Meteorological Station, the average annual temperature was +9,6°С in the central areas. The analysis of changes in precipitation over the study periods demonstrates that, depending on the region, the amount of precipitation is unevenly distributed. For example, in the northern districts of the Ternopil region, the number of years that exceed the annual average rainfall norm increases with each passing decade. The years with the highest precipitation for the entire period of our research were 2001, 2008 and 2012. A similar trend of increase in precipitation was not observed in the central areas of the region. The amount of precipitation throughout the period 1992-2020 was constantly changing between dry and wet years. Therefore, no steady growth trend has been recorded. According to the Ternopil Civil Aviation Meteorological Station, in the last decade, the amount of precipitation has decreased significantly. Throughout 2015-2020 the annual amount did not exceed 564 mm. Typical of the territory of our region is the predominance of summer over winter precipitation - almost 70% of the annual amount of precipitation falls in the summer season. Having analyzed the results of observations from 1992 to 2021, we note that throughout 1992-2011 a significant increase in precipitation compared to the climatic norm in July and August was observed. In the following years, the amount of precipitation in these months sharply decreased, which became one of the factors of hydrological drought.